By Joe Winters
Published: Jun. 24, 2024 at 6:00 PM CDT|Updated: Jun. 24, 2024 at 9:51 PM CDT
CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa (KCRG) - An area of low pressure triggers showers and storms which could become severe, especially in northeast Iowa.
Your First Alert: Storm chances return tonight, but uncertainty remains
An area of low pressure will track from South Dakota into Minnesota today into this evening, moving into a very unstable air mass. With support from upper-level winds, showers and storms are likely to develop to our north. These storms have a good chance to turn severe, and potentially organize into a complex of thunderstorms that will track through the Midwest.
The track of these storms is the question tonight, with some indications that they will stay north of the TV9 viewing area in Minnesota and Wisconsin. There is the possibility that they turn to the south a little earlier, though, and track into at least our northern zones. If this takes place, the threat of severe storms will arrive late this evening into the overnight hours.
Because of the range of potential outcomes, the Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk area today, including nearly all of the viewing area. A small portion of northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin are in an enhanced risk area, where confidence is somewhat higher in potentially damaging storm tracking. Damaging wind would be the primary threat with storms tonight, with some especially intense wind gusts possible in northeast Iowa. There is a lesser threat of an isolated tornado and large hail.
Due to the overnight timing of these storms, it’s important to make sure to have ways to receive warnings that can alert you while you sleep. A NOAA Weather Radio is a great tool in this case. Make sure it’s plugged in and turned on, ready to receive warnings, before you head to bed. We also recommend the KCRG-TV9 First Alert Weather App, which can give you customized alerts for your location. Of course, we’ll also provide updates on KCRG.com and KCRG-TV9 as conditions warrant.
Scattered storms could persist during the morning hours on Tuesday, with areas that receive repeated storms potentially seeing some heavy rainfall totals.
Your First Alert: Another severe storm threat by Tuesday afternoon and evening
After morning activity diminishes, we’ll see a good period of heating again through the afternoon. This should lead to highs again headed for the upper 80s to low 90s for most, with the only exception coming in our northern counties which will be behind the cold front earlier in the day. Dew points stay high in the 70s, pushing heat index values to between 95 to 100 south of U.S. Highway 20.
Storm development should take place between about 3:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m., which will then expand and spread southward. This will be along and ahead of the cold front pushing south through the state, with those south of Highway 20 more favored to see this second round of storms. Activity will exit the southern portions of the viewing area by about 10:00 p.m.
This round of storms does carry another threat of severe weather, with damaging wind remaining the primary threat. Isolated large hail or an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out, either. Much of the viewing area is in a slight risk for severe storms for this threat
Skies should turn clearer for Tuesday night as drier air works into the state.
Quiet and comfortable then back to active and sticky
We’re expecting some variation in our weather in the days that follow. The first change comes with comfortable summertime temperatures and lower dew points for a couple of days. Wednesday and Thursday carry these conditions, and there should be some pretty nice days in late June for any outdoor activities. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, with overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid-60s.
It won’t be long before the next threat of rain and storms returns. This comes on Thursday night through at least part of Saturday as a storm system moves through. Rounds of storms could lead to potentially heavy rainfall totals at times. This is on top of wet conditions in many areas, and potentially rising rivers across eastern Iowa. We’ll be monitoring this potential in the coming days.
Sunday into Monday represents another break with comfortable temperatures and humidity, but we’ll flip back the other way toward the start of the following week. Warmer, more humid conditions and a chance for storms accompany this shift by Tuesday.
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